Sudanese Transitional Government - Rebel Movements Deal: What Is Needed?
15 September, 2019
In two days only the new Sudanese delegation managed to strike a deal with rebel movements that proved difficult to seal in some 20 rounds of talks over an 8-year period during the previous regime led by deposed President Omar Al-Bashir.
That is a clear indication of a ‘new spirit’ as described by El-Hadi Idriss, the new chair of the Revolutionary Front, an umbrella grouping a number of rebel movements. But more important a separate document was signed with the military credible SPLM-N faction led by Abdel Aziz Al-Hilu, with similar content of cessation of hostilities, releasing political prisoners, allowing for human aid to IDPs and deciding on the timing and venue of the peace talks that will be held in Juba on October 14.
The atmosphere of optimism was so high that leader of Sudanese delegation Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagelo expects that talks will not need the six months period assigned by the transitional government to conclude a peace deal.
In fact every issue has been thoroughly discussed over the years and over many rounds of talks in regional capitals under the auspices of regional organizations like the African Union and the IGAD.
What was missing was the political will and readiness to pay the peace price. With the change taking place in Sudan through a uniquely demonstrated popular revolution, all parties are cornered to deliver on peace, which is the key to engage in tackling the mounting problems of the country.
The real challenge is not to conclude a peace deal before the end of the year, but how to make sure that it is a sustained one.
In this respect three issues come to the fore: the first is to renounce violence and commit to peaceful means in political activity. The pretext of resorting to arms is that rebel groups have no choice since they were not allowed by the deposed regime of freedom of speech and political association. However, resorting to arms and violence has its impact not on the adversary alone, but on the rebel group itself as has been well demonstrated through the many bloody divisions used to settle disputes. More important resorting to arms takes civilian hostages in a war that is literally imposed on them with all its heavy human cost.
Renouncing resorting to arms is one major step that consolidates peace as it blocks easy return to mutiny. The real test will be on how to handle the demand by some rebel groups to have their independent army intact for a certain period to ensure genuine implementation of peace accords. But such condition shows clearly lack of confidence in the ability of popular peace movement to topple the regimes.
The second issue is to review the concept of power and wealth sharing that has characterized all peace deals since the 2005 CPA. The honest appraisal of that approach shows clearly that it has done more damage to peace than good. One explanation is that peace deals in the end became restricted between the elites on both sides of the government and rebels, without any benefit filtering down to the people on whose name arms were raised.
However, the only way to overcome this is to open up for people to be engaged and be part of any deal and to minimize chances of behind closed doors arrangements. With the strong impact of social media transparency can easily be the call of the day and chances to conceal and hide are minimized.
The third important factor is to build on the mutual interest with South Sudan, which provides the gateway for many of these rebel groups. It is the efforts of Salva Kiir that persuaded Al-Hilu to join the talks that he used to shun.
The successful visit of the Sovereign Council to meet the rebel groups was followed by another one by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok in his first foreign trip.
The visit was building on previous agreements and with the new spirit it can push for cooperation in various areas with strategic vision, where the “limit is the sky’, in the words of Hamdok and where the two countries can benefit most.
South Sudan provides an opportunity for a number of Sudanese traditional exports like onion and salt that may not find other markets. It is estimated such products can net up to $2 billion annually and help base relationship on mutual interest with far reaching socio-political consequences.
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