Agriculture in Sudan Between Declining Productivity and the Shocks of War: An Analysis of the Crisis and Pathways to Sol| Sudanow Magazine

Khartoum (Sudanaow)

The agricultural sector is the cornerstone of the Sudanese economy and food security, providing livelihoods for about 80% of the population and contributing more than 45% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, this sector has witnessed a sharp decline in production since the outbreak of war in April 2023. The output of main crops (sorghum, millet, sesame, and wheat) has decreased by about 46% compared to the pre-conflict period and is lower than the average of the previous five years, according to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report in April 2024.

In this context, "Sudanaow" met with Dr. Babiker Hamad Ahmed Abdullah, an expert in agricultural extension, technology transfer, and production development, and the National Productivity Enhancement Coordinator. He supervised the implementation of more than 36 productivity enhancement programs across various Sudanese states, achieving results that exceeded global averages for crops like wheat, cotton, Sorghum, sunflower, guar, and peanuts, in addition to livestock and fodder. The dialogue discusses the roots of the agricultural crisis, the impact of the war, and possible recovery pathways.

Dr. Babiker believes that the decline in productivity is not solely due to the war, as climatic and security factors have intertwined. Most notably, floods have destroyed millions of acres and caused severe losses to livestock. Before the war, the cultivated area reached about 60 million acres, of which 55 million were rain-fed and 5 million were irrigated. Despite this vast area, productivity remained low. For instance, sorghum is cultivated on about 20 million acres, but yield per acre does not exceed 100–110 kg in rain-fed agriculture and about 250 kg in irrigated agriculture, rates that are low regionally and globally.

The Fundamental Pillar: The Weight of Economic Role and Performance Challenges

Dr. Babiker states that the agricultural sector bears a heavy burden in the Sudanese economy. It is not merely an economic activity but the historical pillar of wealth and the foundation upon which the state's infrastructure was built. For many years, it has been the primary source of foreign currency through cash crops like cotton, gum arabic, and the massive livestock wealth. However, this strategic importance is not reflected in actual performance. Vast cultivated areas translate into very low productivity, revealing a structural gap between potential and reality.

Globally, the average wheat yield is 3–4 tons per hectare, reaching over 6 tons per hectare in some regions of neighboring countries like Egypt and Morocco. In contrast, Sudan's overall average rarely exceeded 1 ton per hectare, except for the "Global 2000" experience in the early 1990s, which achieved 2.5 tons per hectare (about 1.2 tons per acre). Sudan successfully exported 150,000 tons of wheat to Egypt at that time, before production later declined to cover only 33% of domestic consumption due to the lack of sustainable financing.

As for sorghum, its global average yield is 2.5 tons per hectare, and 1–1.5 tons per hectare in Sub-Saharan Africa, while in Sudan it is often less than 0.6 tons per hectare. For millet, global yields in improved systems reach 2 tons per hectare, while in Sudan they range between 0.4–0.7 tons, with a sharp decline in the 2023 season. Regarding sesame, although the global average is 0.5–0.6 tons per hectare, reaching over 1 ton in advanced systems, its yield in Sudan is often less than 0.3–0.4 tons per hectare, making returns low despite the extensive cultivated areas. These figures confirm that Sudan operates at the lowest levels of the global productivity curve.

Roots of the Crisis: Structural Imbalances and Fluctuating Policies

Dr. Babiker attributes the roots of the crisis to chronic structural imbalances, including weak institutions, fluctuating policies, declining investment in agricultural research and extension, and the collapse of financing and insurance systems, leading to widespread technological stagnation. However, successful experiences, such as the national wheat program in the 1990s and productivity enhancement programs over the past three decades, have proven that applying technical packages with institutional support and stable financing achieves significant leaps.

In the 2022–2023 seasons, the average cotton yield in the Gezira and Rahad projects reached about 33 kantars (e.g., a local unit of weight) per acre for Chinese cotton and 28 kantars per acre for Indian hybrid cotton. The average wheat yield reached 3.3 tons per acre in seven fields in Gezira and White Nile, the highest in Sudan and among the highest rates globally. However, these successes remained limited due to the lack of sustainability and a strategic vision.

The Compound Shock: Interaction of War Impacts with Preexisting Fragility

Dr. Hamad adds that the war came to become a multiplier of the crisis, striking the productive infrastructure at its core. It led to the destruction of irrigation facilities, the looting of machinery and agricultural inputs, the displacement of farmers, and the disruption of supply and marketing chains. The environment of insecurity also opened the door wide for the phenomenon of organized smuggling of cash crops and livestock across borders, draining national resources at a time when they are most needed. This catastrophic scene threatens a significant decline in cultivated areas in upcoming seasons unless urgent measures are taken.

The Recovery Path: Institutional Reform and Producer Empowerment

He emphasizes that emerging from the current crisis requires adopting a multi-level recovery plan. In the short term, the focus must be on urgent measures such as securing soft financing for farmers, rehabilitating irrigation infrastructure, providing basic agricultural inputs, and restoring stability to displaced communities. In the medium and long term, structural roots must be addressed through deep institutional reforms. This includes establishing a high-level agricultural authority with broad coordinative powers, restructuring the agricultural financing system to include insurance tools, and reforming pricing and marketing policies to protect producers from market fluctuations and middlemen exploitation.

The Strategic Vision: From a Subsistence Sector to an Engine for Development

Dr. Hamad adds that policy goals should not be limited to restoring the pre-war situation. Instead, there must be an ambition to transform the agricultural sector into a real engine for development and prosperity. This can be achieved by rehabilitating agricultural infrastructure, especially in national projects, improving irrigation systems, and supporting the stability of producers, herders, and displaced persons, as they are the crucial human element in the production process. Also, widespread technological transformation is needed to raise acre productivity to globally competitive levels. It is essential to diversify production to include high-value-added crops and link them to processing industries, maximizing economic returns. The rational exploitation of other natural resources and directing their revenues to support this agricultural transformation can achieve a rapid leap.

In the final analysis, developing the agricultural sector remains the fundamental way out of the economic and social crises Sudan is undergoing. Achieving this requires genuine political will translated into consistent policies, smart investments in technology and human resources, and a supportive institutional environment. Only by placing agriculture at the top of national priorities can Sudan leverage its immense potential to ensure its food security and build a productive and sustainable economy.

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