Darfur Returns To Doha
09 December, 2018
L: JEM and SLM-MM leaders
After more than seven years since the two main Darfur rebel groups Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudan Liberation Movement-Minni Minnawi (SLM-MM) refused to sign the long negotiated Doha Document on Peace in Darfur (DDPD) and two years of indirect talks, led mainly by the Germans, Darfur file is back to Doha again.
The signing of the pre-negotiation agreement last week in Germany between Sudan government and the two rebel groups stipulated clearly that Doha will host cessation of hostilities (COH) talks, in addition to the negotiations on substantive issues with DDPD being the basis for such talks. The first move regarding COH is relatively significant given the fact that the idea it was the African Union through Thabo Mbeki’s AUHIP is going to host these talks in Addis Ababa. Significant also was the absence of Mbeki or somebody on his behalf from the ceremony that was attended by representatives from those who have been following Darfur file in particular and Sudan in general like emissaries from the Troika: USA, UK, Norway, France, Germany, the Arab League, the IGAD, African Union and the European Union, in addition to Qatar, which will be hosting the talks early next year.
The diminishing role of the AUHIP, or its absence is not a welcome sign, though it may not have the much of an impact. After all it was Doha, who has been footing the bill of the lengthy talks in the past. Moreover, this time there is a new player that is Germany, who is throwing its diplomatic weight and contacts that helped brokering this pre-negotiation deal behind the scene. Moreover, Germany will assume its seat as a non-permanent member of the UNSC in January and for two years period, which will add to its weight and could give the potential deal a much needed world diplomatic clout.
The absence of Mbeki’s AUHIP from the scene so far is not the only hiccup that should be remedied. More important is the absence of the third rebel group led by Abdel Wahid Nur. His faction has some military presence in some pockets in Jebel Marrah that have witnessed some clashes with government forces some time ago, but more important he has a significant influence within IDP population in various camps.
It is hard to imagine what new ideas or proposals will surface following the forthcoming Doha talks since all issues have been discussed all over again and again. Both JEM and SLM-MM were critical of the original Doha deal claiming that it failed to settle the problem and they cite its failure to dismantle the IDP camps that continue to exist 15 years after the original mutiny started.
That was the very problem faced by the first attempt to implement DDPD and interim authority led by El-Tigani Sisi, who is a Fur leader and the bulk of IDPs are from the Fur, but failed over his tenure of five years to make a headway.
That is a proof and good point to make, but those IDP camps will specifically be the new challenge that faces the potential solution. Unless those camps are dismantled any clinched deal will end settling some security issues, absorb fighters, accommodate politicians, but the root cause of the problem will be there.
Another problem is the potential clash between those who broke away from one of the two main groups and how to ensure that bad blood does not turn into internecine infighting.
After all the help of Qatar or Germany is a welcoming addition, but the sole responsibility falls on the Sudanese shoulders. It is high time to turn the unilateral ceasefire that has been in effect for three years into a permanent one. The 15 years that have elapsed since the outbreak of Darfur problem means among other things that a whole generation of young kids have been denied education. That is not related to the past. It is ruining the future and it is high time to say and work towards enough is enough. The expected Doha talks should push for a serious revision of the way the state operates and in an inclusive way to help address the country’s complicated problems in a more open and healthier environment.
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