The reason this time: the need for two viable states
10 January, 2013
Khartoum, (Sudanow)-The talisman and key word, to the resolution of pending post secession questions between Sudan and South Sudan is, and remains, "political will", lack of which there are hundreds of reasons why these issues could remain a bone of contention for decades to come, complicating an already saturated mentality of mistrust. Mistrust groomed for and distilled by a quarter of a century of civil war (1983-2005), but equally fueled by foreign interests.
However, donor fatigue and looming economic hardships that hang over the region, and which later on will sweep, not only the region but the global market at large, shall help lubricate the ossified stands of so many quarters on both sides of the equation. It helped bringing a political will.
A glance at the issues involved, e.g. economic, political, social, and security, which were handled by the September 2012 comprehensive agreements, show the sheer bulk of political will involved. Complex, politically volatile and socially sensitive, most of those issues were left behind by CPA, the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The political pressure was so intense, with the UN, AU, Arab League, the EU, USA, the Islamic Conference Organization and the Council of Churches all pressing for one goal: sign the deal and end the war. There was little room to maneuver. The 2005 CPA came into being.
This time around, however, the home leverage seems much greater than outside political might.
Local politics and economic factors have the upper hand in at least pushing the implementation of the accords. The two sides have learned lessons of the past, one such example is the economic issues agreement which set not only the general principles and guidelines but equally the matrix for every tiny detail of implementation, as expressed by the Head of the Economic Committee on Sudanese side, and by the Minister of Petroleum on the South Sudanese side, in statement on the 27th of September 2012, to this very reporter. They were both convinced that, to have two viable states, the two countries have to cooperate in economic matters. It is not petroleum which is a very perishable commodity in the long run, it is border exchange, trade cooperation, movement of people and livestock: in short economic cooperation. this is the blood that breathes life into the political veins of both regimes and states. It is no secret that both Juba and Khartoum have hit the bottom in economic suffering, not only because oil is no longer running in the pipelines without which no dollar finds its way to the thirty coffers, but preparing for the worst, and in this case, war, leaves no money for development or for alleviating the burden of living for the new born state in the south, and for the surrogate mother, that gave birth to it. Both people were hoping to relish the dividends of peace. After the politically painful delivery of separation, expectations ran high: the southerners were promised sweet and manna after separation, the north was hoping to veer for development and leave behind the legacy of war. But without strong political cooperation that put the political will into tangible bread and butter in the morning table of each family in Juba and Khartoum, both dreams changed into a day dreaming, or rather, a nightmare.
The present agreements and the political will, coupled with need for viability and political survival, might be impetus enough for a different approach this time. War will not feed the people. Economic cooperation does.
It is true that, without security, economic cooperation has slim chance of surviving. But without economic incentives there would be very little reason or practicability for seeking security: economic interests give incentive to maintain security, and security allows economic interests to survive, both need political will. That, there is plenty of it during the September 2012, and the January 2013, summits between President Omar Bashir of Sudan and President Salva kiir of South Sudan.
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