Back to Politics
21 October, 2018
Whether by chance or design there is a flurry of political activity of late that needs to be grasped in good faith with a specific target of making a real breakthrough that puts Sudan on the long path to recover.
The most visible of these activities is last week’s visit by Thabo Mbeki, who chairs AUHIP and was mandated by the African Union to mediate into Sudan political and military crises.
Mbeki managed 30 months ago to get most of the combatants in the country to sign a roadmap, but failed into moving a single step to implement it. Last month Mbeki contacted the signatories to convey a message with two main points: that things have changed over time and that convening another national dialogue conference seems very much unlikely given the fact that the government went solo with its version of the national dialogue. Moreover, he suggested that the opposition should join the discussion about the proposed constitution and prepare to compete in presidential and parliamentary election slated for 2020. He pointed out that he should be submitting a report by the end of the year, which coincides with the end of his mandate. Following his visit, he declared that he will call the opposition for a consultative meeting.
Despite the initial rejection from some opposition groups like those of Sudan Call ( the umbrella for rebel and political parties) for Mbeki’s new proposal, there are strong signals that there is a room for some accommodation. The recent statements by Sadig El-Mahdi and Yasir Arman, both leading opposition figures, on their intentions to come back to Sudan and continue their push for a political settlement from inside Sudan should be seen as a positive development.
However, the bulk of responsibility of moving forward rests on the government, which should take the lead and knock on every possible door and explore any potential opportunity to delve into peace.
Moreover, the newly discovered interest in economy remains an unfinished effort regardless of what could be achieved unless a political solution is found and implemented.
It became clear that the root cause of the country’s economic deterioration rests in politics. A good portion of its meager resources is squandered on military and security spending to ensure that the government has the upper hand against the rebels.
More important, it is this continuation of this political and military stalemate that is blocking the way before Sudan from integrating with the world economy. Removing Sudan from the US list of countries sponsoring terrorism is a salient example of this obstacle. In addition to unblocking of flow of up to $3 billion in aid, the private sector can benefit from such measure that will allow access foreign finance and give impetus to efforts to highlight the economic issues.
Though peace should be on the top of the government agenda, but the timing looks more encouraging and favoring the government, which requires a more determined and concerted effort to push for peace making use of its recent successful mediation in South Sudan peace, improved relations with Uganda and the general mood of reconciliation in the region. It is not far-fetched to expect that Juba and out of reciprocity will try to pay Khartoum back by pushing for peace and making use of its good offices with rebel movements that have relied on Juba support for long time.
Whatever is going to happen needs to take into account what is emerging in the economic field. After many trials and failed attempts to list some foreign aid, Sudan found no alternative but to rely on itself and its own resources to navigate way out of its economic crises. The same could happen in politics. Sudan problems have been internationalized over decades and despite mediations and guarantors, no sustainable peace was to be found. The government can create a more conducive political environment that encourages rebel and opposition groups to abandon both violence and operating from abroad.
It is high time to try something domestic, but more important than preferring domestic over foreign mediation is the will to forge ahead with peace. And the best chance for such peace to be obtained is to be owned by people at grass roots level, not sharing the cake between elites.
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SS/AS
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