The story of the Nile waters from mutual benefit to the war threat
04 February, 2012
Khartoum, (sudanow.info.sd) - Last year, Ethiopia launched the construction of a $4.8 billion dam project on the Blue Nile River near the Sudanese border raising angry protests from downstream countries, namely the Sudan and Egypt.
In a move described as positive in the course of developments over responses from the downstream countries, a joint tripartite technical committee set up by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan has began in Addis Ababa on January 11, 2012 - assessing the possible impacts of the massive hydro-power dam project Ethiopia intends to build in the Blue Nile River.
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However, it is not certain yet that this development would resolve the dispute over the geo-political impacts over the Nile waters by restoring the environment of cooperation among the River Nile ripariancountries or would it deepen the conflict over the use of the Nile waters amid growing regional international political concerns.
The first part, of this three takes’ article will review the issue of the Nile waters, and attempt to briefly draw the outlines of the contention over the dam project which caused the fears of Egypt and Sudan and their response to the Ethiopian dam project.
The second take will assess the prospects of the ‘Best Scenario’ of a possible understanding between the three countries leading to resolving their contentions and bringing about an environment conducive to the good management of the Nile waters for the mutual benefit of the three countries.
The third take of the series will examine the ‘Worst Scenario’ of the possibility of an international involvement in the affairs of the Nile waters and what are the implications of such involvement and the threat it poses.
The Nile River is the longest in the world while the Nile Basin covers 1.3 million square miles, making it slightly larger than India. There are ten riparian countries — Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Eritrea. Three of the ten — Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia — are far more important than the remaining seven from the standpoint of Nile water hydrology and potential political conflict or cooperation over Nile water issues. The three account for 85 percent of the territory that constitutes the hydrologic boundaries of the basin. Sudan contains 63 percent of the basin while Ethiopia has only 12 percent and Egypt 10 percent.
The importance of the Nile, especially for Egypt and Sudan, can not be overstated. Ninety-five percent of Egyptians live in the Nile Valley and depend on the river for virtually all of their fresh water. Egypt is not being alarmist when it says that Nile water is a life or death issue for the country. Egypt is probably more dependent than any other country in the world on freshwater that comes from outside its borders.
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Over the years, Egypt, the United Kingdom, and Sudan have determined Nile water allocations. Egypt and the United Kingdom signed an agreement in 1929 that gave Egypt 48 billion cubic meters of water annually and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters. Following Sudanese independence, Egypt and Sudan renegotiated the agreement in 1959. Based on an annual flow at Aswan of 84 billion cubic meters, the 1959 agreement allocated 55.5 billion cubic meters (three-quarters) of the water to Egypt and 18.5 billion cubic meters (one-quarter) to Sudan.
Sudan warns against hasty stepsand Egypt threatens to withdrawthe NBI
It should be noted that the Ministerial Council of the Basin, at its meeting in Kinshasa in 2008, approved, with the exception of Egypt and the absence of Sudan, the establishment of the Commission of the Nile Basin to work on the completion of the draft document on the contentious issues and to propose an international monitors committee to consider these outstanding issues, after the Council failed to resolve the rooted differences about water security. This was followed by the signing of the Framework Cooperation Agreement without resolving the outstanding problems.
This step formed an expected development within the framework of negotiations between the Nile Basin countries. The Sudan former Minister of Irrigation Dr. Kamal Ali Mohammed warned against hasty steps that may lead to negative effects on cooperation and convergence among the countries of the basin, which they were able to achieve in the past ten years.
Egypt has recently threatened to withdraw from the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) if the upstream countries are to insist on signing a framework cooperation agreement and establishment of the new High Commission for Nile Waters without the consent and participation of Egypt and Sudan. Egypt stressed that in case of the establishment of this commission, or conclusion of an agreement that does not include the two countries, it would bring to an end the joint projects to be implemented within the NBI.
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The essence of the dispute between the basin countries is centered on Article (14 b) relating to water security and Articles (34 a) and (34 b) on the consensus over the agreement provisions of Article (8) on the criteria, the World Bank policies and their relationship to the agreement. According to Sudan and Egypt, these issues must be resolved and clarified before finalizing the draft of the new agreement.
The new framework
The institutional and legal framework of the waters of the Nile is a new mechanism through which re-allocation of the Nile waters could be re-considered for the benefit of the all Nile Basin countries, without prejudice to any country of the Nile basin together with tapping the water that fall at the upstream, which is estimated at 1600 billion cubic meters while only about only 5 percent of it is taken advantage of.
The NBI is regarded as the last joint cooperation agreement between the nine Nile Basin countries that share the Nile waters. Its negotiation and dialogue has begun in February 1997 and continued until March 1998 while the NBI was launched in February 1999. It aims at (reaching social and economic development through sustainable and equitable use) and (common benefit from the Nile Basin water resources).
The term ‘The Nile Basin’ is given to 9 African countries through which the River Nile flows; whether crossing their territories, or those whose territory is a source or the headwaters of the Nile, or those being a territory through which the rivers feeding the River Nile run. The Nile Basin covers an area of ??3.4 million km ² starting from Lake Victoria in the upstream and downstream to the Mediterranean.
Sudan (before secession of the Republic of South Sudan, July 9 2011) accounts for the largest area of the basin of the Nile among its countries, which is equivalent to 62.7% of the total area of ??the basin, followed by Ethiopia 21.1%., Egypt 9.9%, Uganda 7.7, Tanzania 3.8%, Kenya 1.8%, the Democratic Republic of Congo 0.8%, Rwanda 0.7% and Burundi 0.5 %.
Ethiopia is a source to over 80% of the Nile’s water and argues that it has right to execute development projects.
Last year, Ethiopia launched the construction of a $4.8 billion dam project on the Blue Nile River near the Sudanese border raising angry protests from downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt.
The dam is planned for the Blue Nile River in northwestern Ethiopia, a few kilometers from the Ethiopia–Sudan border.
The dam is designed to have an installed capacity of 5250 MW, which is threefold of the 1885.8 MW installed capacity of the 12 currently operational hydro-power plants of the nation.
The hydro-power generation capacity of the plant will be equal to six middle size nuclear reactors and is destined to supply several neighboring countries, with cheap clear energy .
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The revised agreement, signed by Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, seeks to allow irrigation and hydroelectric projects to go ahead without Cairo's consent.
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